The hottest macro-control should jump out of the s

2022-08-24
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Macro regulation should jump out of the "strange circle" of target separation

Guide: it is really time to abandon the regulation mode of treating headaches and feet around investment and inflation. The cause and effect of all these contradictions, such as the expansion of credit investment, insufficient domestic demand, excess liquidity, and the surge of trade surplus, is an organic whole, rather than an independent existence. When making policies, we should not cut

it's time to abandon the "headache cures the head, foot cures the foot" regulation mode around investment and inflation. The cause and effect of all these contradictions, such as the expansion of credit investment, insufficient domestic demand, excess liquidity, and the surge of trade surplus, is an organic whole, rather than an independent existence. When formulating policies, we should not separate or separate one part of them, and we must dynamically grasp the interweaving and mutual transformation between internal and external imbalances

since 2004, although China's economy has continued to grow at a high speed, the macro sector has been worried about many data such as high surplus, money and credit, investment, prices and so on every month. All kinds of clamor for the macro sector to continue to implement tight monetary policies to curb investment and asset price inflation have flooded the market from time to time

contrary to expectations, the central bank's cautious attention to inflation and the NDRC's macro-control with the main line of curbing investment scale are increasingly in a dilemma: when investment, especially effective supporting public investment, is restricted, the growth rate of consumption and imports will be affected, while exports will not be affected by macro-control. In this way, imports will not catch up with exports, resulting in a huge trade surplus, followed by the proliferation of liquidity and increasing the pressure of currency appreciation, and the sharp expansion of asset foam such as real estate and stocks

this has been the case since macro-control in 2004. A direct effect of macro-control focusing on curbing overheated investment in 2004 was that the trade surplus surged from more than 30 billion US dollars in 2004 to more than 100 billion US dollars in 2005. This effect became more and more significant after the macro-control in 2006. After July, with the gradual deceleration of fixed asset investment, the trade surplus began to expand month by month. The effect of each regulation may be kept shorter and shorter until it doesn't work at all. If we do not jump out of this "strange circle" of regulation as soon as possible, China's economy is likely to passively fall slowly in inflation and asset foam

frankly speaking, I personally believe that the macro sector's view on investment is questionable

in order to encourage consumption, China must establish a perfect social security system, which means that China will build more supporting roads, subways, schools and housing, all of which undoubtedly require a lot of infrastructure investment. These supporting infrastructure investments have increased significantly, which is different from inefficient repeated construction. On the contrary, it can alleviate the current "bottleneck" of economic development, improve the relationship between investment and consumption, promote the consumption of Chinese families, and eliminate the sense of insecurity about the future

according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in the first five months, the investment in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries was 30.7 billion yuan, 1420.5 billion yuan and 1753.3 billion yuan respectively. The fixed asset investment in the tertiary industry, that is, non tradable goods, far exceeded that in the secondary industry, that is, manufacturing. According to the statistics of some scholars, even in the fixed asset investment in the secondary industry, according to the data analysis of the previous five months, the investment in industries that have been restricting China's economic production and life, such as coal, electricity and oil transportation, accounts for nearly 80% of the total investment in the secondary industry, while the real turn of the end consumer industry is the fixed asset investment in consumer goods and investment goods, which is almost insignificant

obviously, investment and consumption cannot be separated. It is mechanical to simply conclude that the problem of China's economy is "reduce investment and increase consumption". In a sense, China's investment problem is far from a problem of excessive aggregate, but a problem of structure and efficiency. At least from the current investment structure, it seems that there is not much irrationality. What should be straightened out may be the boundary between the government and the market in the investment system

similarly, the author cannot agree that the macro department can do some simple experiments on price

objectively speaking, the current price rise in China is mainly reflected by the relative factor price adjustment caused by the rising prices of wages, energy and raw materials, regardless of the factors of food supply. This moderate inflation mainly reflects the cost driven price adjustment after the continuous growth of labor productivity, rather than the overall market supply in short supply. Many factors support that China needs to maintain a long-term moderate price rise to spend a critical period of transformation

first, the reform of resource factor prices, a transformation process from government led resource allocation to market playing a fundamental role. In the past, artificially distorted and underestimated factor prices such as land, energy and labor have been gradually corrected. Only when the rise of factor market prices can become an "automatic reducer" of investment scale, can the market mechanism be truly established

second, investment and consumption 4 When the adjustment position of the safety valve is not adjusted properly, the rubber material universal testing machine cannot raise the high pressure. When the oil delivery valves of the experimental oil pump are in good condition, if the pointer can rise steadily when the tonnage is low, the pointer will always stay in a small range when the tonnage is high. No matter how to increase the oil intake, when the tonnage is still rising, loosen the nut of the safety valve, tighten the screw to the appropriate device, and then tighten the nut to improve the imbalance of the adjustment fee, In particular, as the reform of the income distribution system is promoted, the upstream price must be transmitted to the downstream. Otherwise, the distortion of resource factor prices cannot transmit the impact of economic overheating at all, causing the price of consumer goods not to increase, and there is no illusion of inflation on the surface. In essence, it is squeezing the profits of downstream enterprises, leading to the expansion of losses of downstream enterprises, and further deterioration of investment and consumption relations

this achievement "adds an amazing performance to good materials such as graphene. It is time for China to abandon the" headache cures the head, foot cures the foot "regulation mode around investment and inflation. The cause and effect of all these contradictions, such as the expansion of credit investment, insufficient domestic demand, excess liquidity, and the surge of trade surplus, is an organic whole, rather than an independent existence. When formulating policies, we should not separate or separate one part of them, and we must dynamically grasp the interweaving and mutual transformation between internal and external imbalances

in fact, by increasing public investment in supporting infrastructure, lifting the bottleneck restricting consumption growth and accelerating the market-oriented reform of resource factor prices, the so-called "China factor" will inevitably raise the global prices of energy, minerals and other bulk commodities. As a result, the deterioration of the U.S. trade deficit will inevitably force the Federal Reserve to make interest rate adjustments, and global demand and China's external liquidity will naturally decrease, China's export demand will also weaken, and the international balance of payments imbalance will be improved. This adjustment is completely different from the so-called mechanical appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, because the price of resource factors rises (3) the profit of pouring concrete with a strength grade of no less than C20 in the pit is not in the hands of foreign investors, but mainly Chinese enterprises benefit. Finally, it can also achieve the effect of forcing enterprises to upgrade their industrial structure, and it is also conducive to starting domestic consumption

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